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When he figured out that the ricin cigarette had been lifted (as he had originally suspected) it ceased to be a coincidence that it had disappeared. Jesse had originally suspected that the cigarette was lifted in the very way he now knows it was. Walt had talked him into thinking that one of Gus's henchman had lifted it instead. Then when the Lily of the Valley came up, Jesse figured he had just misplaced it somehow. But the dope lift was a giveaway. So he knew that Walt didn't have the ricin cigarette lifted without a reason. And he put together that it wasn't an accident that Brock's symptoms weren't unlike ricin poisoning. Jesse put together that it was all part of Walt's plan.

Jesse has learned complex schemes very well from Walt, and I suspect some of his logic of deception. Did you notice that all the schemes post-Gus that Jesse provided the key planning? Wiping Gus's laptop with the magnet, the methlamine heist, engineering key bits of the mobile lab? I can't wait to see Jesse's play to bring down Walt.

Do you think Jesse will ever figure out that Walt killed Jane?

I think he will, but I can't imagine how he'll do it. Maybe he'll push Walt to the point where he confesses, maybe Walt will tell Jesse to piss him off. Maybe Walt will screw up and hint at it by accident and Jesse will figure it out.

I am so, so excited to find what all of this has been building to, the pieces are in place for some really crazy shit to go down.